Module 5 — Reading Your Results

Contents

Module 5 — Reading Your Results#

Coming soon. This module will walk through a real posterior .nc file and show how to interpret credible intervals on a temperature reconstruction.

Preview#

Once TEXAS returns a posterior, you have thousands of plausible temperature estimates — not a single number. This module covers how to summarise, plot, and honestly report that uncertainty.

Key ideas this module will cover:

  • The difference between a credible interval and a confidence interval

  • Median vs. mean: which to report and why

  • Comparing TEXAS reconstructions to classical TEX86 calibrations (Kim et al., Tierney & Tingley)

  • Propagating forward-calibration uncertainty into inverse reconstructions

  • What it means when the posterior is wide: data limitation vs. model limitation

Contents